Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 1 2
Results 11 to 15 of 15

Thread: Huge Permutation Problem

  1. #11
    Super Moderator p45cal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    1,551
    Articles
    0
    Excel Version
    365


    Register for a FREE account, and/
    or Log in to avoid these ads!

    So when you say:
    "The value assigned to each team name may change from row to row."
    a team's value will stay the same on a given date.

    So 'what combination of 13 teams would give me the maximum return?' might be answered by:
    The 3 teams with the longest odds from the Premiership, the 3 teams with the longest odds from the Championship, the 3 teams with the longest odds from League1, the 4 teams with the longest odds from the League2?

  2. #12
    No and no 😃

    i I can see your logic though

    For each bet (each row) we use whichever bookmaker gives the highest payout for all four selections on that bet (row) being correct. Bookmakers may have slightly different odds for the same team. A team may be 2.50 with one bookmaker but 2.70 with another. There is generally more difference between odds the higher the odds for that particular team are. For example a team deemed very likely to succeed will be given very similar odds by all bookmakers so the range may be say 1.66 with the smallest odds given to 1.80 for the highest. But differing bookmakers may offer odds of 20.00 or 34.00 for a long shot. So one bet may use a bookmaker that has a slightly lower value for one team than can be found elsewhere but this is more than compensated for by some of the other teams in the bet having a much higher value than found elsewhere.

    Bookmaker A
    Leicester 1.80, Derby 2.50, Swindon 5.0, Luton 10.0
    gives a combined value of 225

    bookmaker B
    leicester 1.66, Derby 2.40, Swindon 4.5, Luton 13.0
    gives a combined value of 233

    notice how the first 3 selections are all smaller but the total value is larger. So on any given date because multiple bets are being placed with multiple bookmakers the value of a team may change on that date, although it will be similar it won't necessarily be the same.

    over time a teams value may fluctuate wildly depending on results.

    to your second question, it is highly unlikely that anyone would ever choose 4 teams (one from each league) that all had high values because the accumulative chance of this bet winning would be very small. It is much more likely for people to either choose 4 selections with small values because they are deemed more likely to win, or to choose perhaps 3 selections with small to mid values and then one more speculative selection.

    If we focussed on purely the teams with the highest values from each league there is a good chance the amount won would be 0, as in no row would you likely find a selection of all 4 large value teams.

    Also by purely focussing on the teams that occur most often a team that is deemed almost certain to win will be chosen very regularly but will be chosen with a large variety of other teams meaning a lot of these bets will be losers and the ones that win may have small returns.

    The maximum potential win will surely fall somewhere between these 2 camps of a very small number of big winners and a large number of smaller winning bets.

    This is is why the combinations are so crucial. A team picked just once with fairly average odds may be found in a large winning bet and therefore may be more valuable overall than a team picked 20 times or a team with much higher odds

  3. #13
    Super Moderator p45cal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    1,551
    Articles
    0
    Excel Version
    365
    The max potential return would be to bet on the 4 teams with the longest odds, at whichever bookmaker gave those long odds. It would also be the least likely to win anything at all.
    So you're looking for a balance in between that and going for the 4 teams with the shortest odds which would give you a decent chance of winning, but winning very little.
    The bookmakers are quoting odds on each team - the odds vary from team to team depending on how likely they think the teams are going to win. The only way to win something is to be better or luckier at judging the teams than the bookmakers (or looking for mispriced odds). I think you're looking in the wrong direction to find good bet combinations basing your data on the odds that the bookies themselves are giving. You need a separate and good source of information to beat them. I don't even think that if you had a lightening fast computer that could give you the answers of every possible combination in a reasonable time (using the bookies' odds) that it would help in your choice of which bets to place.

  4. #14
    The question is not how to pick teams for the bet nor how likely each team is to succeed.

    The question is once all bets have been placed which combination of 13 teams winning would give us the highest financial return?

  5. #15
    There seems to be some misunderstanding. I'm not asking for any help in choosing which bets to place.

    This is is not a betting question. It is purely a spreadsheet question.

    Once the sheet has been filled in what combination of names gives the biggest return? I was hoping somebody might have a smart way of narrowing down the search to a number small enough to work out the combinations

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 1 2

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •